Theresa May’s survival is just a Tory confidence trick
Conservative MPs sustain her not because she will deliver a good Brexit, but because she can keep Labour out of power
@garyyounge
Thu 17 Jan 2019 16.05 GMT Last modified on Thu 17 Jan 2019 16.07 GMT
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Theresa May during prime minister’s questions on Wednesday 16 January.
Back in 2017, when “strong and stable” was still a campaign slogan and not a laugh line, I sat in on a focus group of undecided voters in Harrow – home to two marginal seats in north-west London. Even then they didn’t like Theresa May much. Assuming she would be an effective negotiator, they appreciated her steeliness – the word “strong” came up twice, as did “Thatcher” and “clever”. But overall they found her unreliable and unrelatable. They described her, among other things, as a “liar”, “headmistress”, “busybody”, “uncaring” and “untrustworthy”.
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Comparing her to Jeremy Corbyn, one said: “He’d buy a round, Theresa wouldn’t.” When asked if they would trust her to look after their home while they were on holiday, the consensus was: “The house, yes. But not the pets.” This is Britain. If she can’t be trusted to get a round in or look after pets, I doubt May would have passed one of her own Home Office “British values” tests.
Then came the dementia tax, the loss of her majority, mass resignations, the Windrush scandal, the votes of no confidence both from her party and parliament, and the deal that was dead on arrival.
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Indeed, to dwell on her shortcomings as prime minister, at this point, feels unnecessary. Nobody seriously denies them. She lacks a plan, a prayer, a mandate, a majority, a message or a clue. To channel Rob Fleming, the protagonist of Nick Hornby’s High Fidelity, she has lost “the plot, the subplot, the script, the soundtrack, the intermission, her popcorn, the credits, and the exit sign”.
“This is now the time to put self-interest aside,” she told the nation on Wednesday night. “It’s time for us to come together, put the national interest first – and deliver on the referendum.” With 71 days to go, after a series of predictable if damning results, this is not only her best idea but apparently her only idea. It makes you wonder what she thought she was doing during the previous two years and six months.
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So when Westminster expresses confidence in May, it says more about Westminster than it does about her. MPs’ decision – that this is the person to lead in uncertain times through an intractable crisis to a destination as yet unknown – demands interrogation.
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The primary logic is of course crudely partisan. May has spent her premiership not trying to unite the country but her party. She has failed, but her party appreciates the effort. It wasn’t Westminster who backed her on Wednesday but the Tories and the Democratic Unionist party, who were paid £1bn for their trouble. Last month a third of Tory MPs said they would rather have another party leader. But having failed in that bid, they would rather have May than Corbyn as leader of their country. So more than 100 Tories voted first to get rid of her, and then to keep her.
It’s not difficult to see why. Corbyn is a socialist and has proved himself to be an effective campaigner. The last 10 polls show the parties are close, with the Tories leading in four, Labour ahead in four and two tied. Given that Labour managed to close a 21-point gap during the last election campaign, May has vowed not to lead the party into another election and any successor would deepen already infected wounds, the Tories would rather muddle through than double down. So the last few months have illustrated less confidence in her than a lack of confidence in their own party to find a viable successor or prevail before the electorate.
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As such, May is being sustained by Conservatives not for her ability to lead, but for her capacity to p
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